It’s time for Kpopalypse to look back on his predictions for 2020, and make all new predictions for 2021! Come with Kpopalypse for a look into the crystal ball of k-pop!
Before we delve into the destiny of 2021, let’s take a look at 2020 – at around this time last year I made a lot of bold predictions with my notorious super Boram ESP powers! How well did Kpopalypse do?
RESULTS OF 2020 PREDICTIONS
The wheels start to come off BTS – CORRECT. There appear to be serious issues in the BTS camp with finances and certain members generally getting screwed over and worked nearly to death while others ride the gravy train. Of course the label is denying it – why wouldn’t they. No wonder RM is the only one with anything even approaching a genuine smile in any of the photos lately, don’t tell me I’m the only one who’s noticed that.
Twice also take a hit – CORRECT. First it was Mina and now Jeongyeon is struggling with the pressures of being in one of the world’s top tier girl groups.
Blackpink remain huge – CORRECT. Blackpink have only built on previous success, barely a week goes by when they don’t break some crazy record of some kind or other. Truly, they paved the way.
More drug busts – CORRECT. Drugs drugs drugs. Koreans say they don’t do them, Koreans do them, Koreans get caught doing them, same old story.
Netizens get pwned – CORRECT – KIND OF. Commenting has now been removed from many portals in the wake of last year’s k-pop tragedies. Sadly there are still some places where comments can be left, so the scourge of netizens remains for now, at least until the next high-profile idol suicide brings the issue back to the spotlight.
K-pop gets weirdly political – CORRECT. K-pop fans got heavily involved in sabotaging Trump’s campaign during the US elections, showcasing the potential for fandoms to co-ordinate as a political force if only they could stop doxxing and cyberbullying everyone who doesn’t agree with them for five seconds.
Your faves remain “problematic” – CORRECT. Nobody gives a fuck about your cultural standards, sorry.
Han Seo Hee stays relevant – CORRECT. From speaking out against domestic violence to showing people how to get away with taking drugs, idols have a lot to learn from Han Seo Hee, the Korean cultural icon who is still richer than your oppars.
SNSD members/ex-members get real – CORRECT. Jessica’s new novel “Shine” is exactly the thinly-veiled dig at SM Entertainment and Girls’ Generation disguised as a young adult fiction romance that we all knew it would be, and she’s just getting started, with a sequel planned for 2021.
“The big three” face a new challenge – CORRECT. Coronavirus ran rampant around the world, halting k-pop concerts and forcing many groups and idols into isolation and a complete rethink of touring business models.
Nobody can drive – CORRECT. holy. fucking. shit. Stay off the road you drunk kids.
Momoland struggle – CORRECT. Momoland lost even more members and the pressure is on JooE to keep up that cultural relevance like never before. Even inking new deals hasn’t seen them hit another peak now that their virality is on the slide, let’s hope they can rebound.
Loona come back strong – CORRECT. Loona had something for everyone in 2020, whether you liked good music, or not.
Monsta X maintain – CORRECT. Monsta X powered forward, making significant inroads into international popularity, even after losing their lead fapper.
Yua Mikami busts out – INCORRECT. Cynics thought this prediction was a “sure thing” that I just inserted to increase the number of correct predictions, but Yua Mikami had a quiet year on the k-pop front, only appearing in a few drama videos plus a j-shit or two.
More controversy hits the blogosphere – CORRECT. I interviewed both Fiestar’s Cheska and Kim Nayoon, much to the disgust of anyone who can’t deal with the reality of the k-pop industry, and to cap it off I even spoke to that German Nayeon stalker, allowing my readership to peer directly into the madness of what happens when k-pop idol fan insanity is taken to its logical conclusion. Who else would dare?
Kpopalypse continues to irritate the fuck out of anybody and everybody he can in 2020 – CORRECT. Was there even any doubt?
So as usual Kpopalypse predictions were mostly correct thanks to SUPER BORAM ESP – James Randi suck on my ballsack! Now it’s time to see what Kpopalypse forsees for 2021! Super Boram ESP powers are now activated!
KPOPALYPSE’S PREDICTIONS FOR 2021
BTS remain large but also continue to implode – the boys haven’t been happy for a while, but given their huge success, they will force themselves to endure. There will be consequences.
Aespa do just fine – with a huge agency and a lot of manpower and investment behind them, Aespa have nothing to worry about. Controversies will appear, but they will ride through it.
Changing of the guard – new groups will rise quicker than usual and at least one well known group nobody expected to die so soon will call it quits.
Boy groups come back strong – after an absolutely piss weak pathetic 2020 for the male end of k-pop, people will actually write some new good songs for boy groups again.
Blackpink continue to PAVE THE WAY – but expect to be drip-fed music as usual.
More of those fun “cultural” k-pop controversies appear – and from the usual suspects too… plus some new ones.
Fandoms experience backlash – too much high-profile abuse of power gets noticed in new places and changes how the world sees k-pop fans, for the worse.
Coronavirus continues to mess shit up – don’t expect a quick return to business as usual in the k-pop world, even once a vaccine is widely distributed some things will be forever changed.
Yua Mikami comes back to k-pop – actually this probably won’t happen but I’m going to try and will it into being damnit.
Apink surprise us all – you never expected this. No I’m not talking about my most fappable list.
IU gets into shit again – and weathers the storm with popularity intact, as usual.
K-pop agencies reform, somewhat– progress for artist rights is slow but k-pop agencies will be forced to clean up their act just a little bit more than they’ve had to so far.
Wait, did you say Han Seo Hee? Again? Really? – say no more.
Itzy git gud – with Twice staying popular but looking increasingly shaky, Itzy will step up to the plate.
More virtual idols – K/DA, Aespa… don’t think it’ll end there.
Some big changes in the k-pop online world – expect some shifts that shake up the k-pop online ecosystem for 2021.
Kpopalypse continues to be a cunt – you can count on it.
That’s all the predictions for the next 12 months – expect them fondly! My final prediction is that Kpopalypse will return soon with more posts!
KPOPALYPSE 
2014 debuts who should be up for contract renewal next year. Place your bets:
GOT7
AKMU (I believe they’ve already extended with YG)
Mamamoo
Red Velvet
Winner
DreamCatcher (all but Gayeon and Handong debuted with Minx in 2014)
Lovelyz
I think JYP will figure out a way to keep GOT7 around, and AKMU is a reliable (and inexpensive) money machine for YG, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the rest of these groups fade out.
2022 is going to be a bloodbath: Twice, GFriend, CLC, Oh My Girl, Monsta X, N.Flying, Seventeen, April, Day6, Up10tion, DIA, iKON
Contract renewals tend to be for shorter terms than the original contracts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Red Velvet, Mamamoo, and Dreamcatcher renew.
I’m sure the Red Velvet members would like to go out on a high note, and this year between Wendy being out of commission for much of the year and the Irene scandal they’d probably like another couple years to end things right.
Mamamoo and Dreamcatcher are both on major upswings in terms of sales, and both of their companies seem to give them quite a bit of freedom for side projects, so I’d lean towards them adding a few years more to keep raking it in.
Typically you only see successful groups disband if the members think they can make more as solo artists or in some other field of the entertainment industry. Since RBW is already letting the Mamamoo members do their solo stuff and since they don’t really have any acting aspirations that they’ve shown I don’t see what breaking up the group would do for them. Aside from Siyeon, Dreamcatcher hasn’t shown a lot of ambition for solo releases, and their niche (but growing) fanbase seems to focus on them as a group, they’re one of those groups where there’s probably the least solo-stans.
I agree with you about AKMU, probably cost very little, they’re self sufficient and write their own music, and YG seems to give them the freedom to do what they will much more than typical idol groups.
GOT7 is selling tons of albums, I imagine they’d want to stay together as long as they’re making a lot of money. Plus from the JYP perspective they’re doing better than Stray Kids, so the company would likely be willing to keep investing in them.
Winner isn’t quite at the same level, but they’re still selling over 100K per album in recent releases. Since iKon may end up faltering with the loss of BI and Treasure is just getting started, I could see YG being aggressive to keep them around for another couple years until Treasure really gets going, but who knows.
Lovelyz is the one I’d really worry about. They didn’t get any of the Queendom popularity bump that Mamamoo, (G)-IDLE, and Oh My Girl received, and they aren’t really digital monsters either. Several members could launch workable solo or acting careers, and Rocket Punch seems to be catching on well, plus the IZ*ONE trainees that Woollim has could form the base of a new girl group in a couple years. Of all of them I’d think they’re the most likely to disband, or to continue on as a smaller group with one or more members leaving.
2021: Mamamoo & Red Velvet will re-sign. I’m hoping DC will continue. If I were AKMU, I would run away. Got7 may continue another 3 years at least.
2022: CLC, April, DIA will disband. Oh My Girl will disband if they still earn nothing. I expect Twice & Gfriend to continue unless they want to retired.
Oh My Girl got huge amount of popularity this year. They performed best in korean charts after Blackpink for girl groups and the members are getting tons of variety shows/cfs. I can see some member not renewing because of health issues because the girls are being very overworked.
Twice also has the issue with multiple members have health issues due to overwork&exhaustaion so I can see members leaving and their dwindling popularity in both Japan and Korea I don’t think they could last as a full group.
Gfriend is done. They are charting worse and worse each comeback and at this point they could release Roly Poly they would still flop. Plus big hit has 3 girl groups planned so I don’t see how they could continue.
Dreamcatcher is finished unfortunately.
Mamamoo is most likely disbanding because Hwasa is the Suzy of this generation meaning her popularity is much bigger than the group and she probably wants to go solo.
Gfriend is under SouMu management instead of Big Hit direct management. Their album is selling higher and higher every year. Who cares about digital chart. High in digital charts is nothing if not followed by album sales because less album sales = weak fandom. Miss A was disbanded because their albums sales were nothing compare to newly debut Twice. Gfriend concert is still selling. Gfriend will continue for another 3 years.
DC is far from finished unless the 5 Minx members choose to disband (which i doubt when they are getting recognized after experiencing 2 years being total nugu). As B-tier group, they sure makes money as they have dedicated fandom who buy more & more albums ever year. Their concerts are selling. Their company only works for them. Unless they want to retire, I expect them to continue another 3 years at least.
Twice still selling in above 100K each album, despite not spread out. No girlgroup have ever sold more than 100K Korean album in Japan, except Twice. Their fandom is very strong. While they have health issue, unfortunately none of the members have strong foothold to do solos. I’m expecting all of them to continue for another 3 years, maybe with less group activities, before call it quit. They can take turn to rest anyway (advantage of big group)
Mamamoo has no reason to disband.
Oh My Girl will not continue unless they earn enough money. They probably only managed to pay back trainee debt last year.
I agree with you on OMG. They had a great year digitally, but their album sales topped out at less than 40k. To put that in perspective, most people still consider DC a B-tier group on the rise but they just surpassed 100k in sales with their latest mini, and each album they release sells significantly more than the last. I think YooA’s solo debut is very telling as was her special stage for MAMA and appearance on Good Girl. I could see OMG turning into a Hyuna/4minute situation. It’s not that OMG is doing poorly, but their agency can also make more and cut costs by just promoting YooA. If they don’t see a huge increase in album sales or a repeat performance on the digital charts next year, I don’t think they will renew. Plus, there’s a new group on the horizon from their agency as well with IZ*ONE’s Chaeyeon.
I doubt DC will be finished now that they are one of the top selling girl groups and their trajectory is still going up. Plus, they’ve been getting some tie-in deals and endorsements that are probably pretty lucrative. I don’t see them going anywhere until 2024.
Mamamoo has no reason not to stay together. Their sales are still going up, and here is a surprise, Hwasa actually had the lowest album sales out of all the solos they released this year (although her value is in her endorsements and it girl status), but given the free reign and creativity RBW allows them, why change what isn’t broken?
I actually think the two big surprises will be Red Velvet and Twice. There are a few members in both groups that I could see wanting out, either just because they are done being an idol or would rather sign with a different agency that allows some artistic freedom as a soloist.
“2022 is going to be a bloodbath: Twice, GFriend, CLC, Oh My Girl, Monsta X, N.Flying, Seventeen, April,. . . .”
(0______0)
Holy crap, that’s an insane amount of road-tested, solid groups
(plus most of them I’ve been following and enjoying since their debuts.
Wow.
For the first four mentioned, I really hope they all do re-up, at least for another 2 years because I’m so NOT ready to see them disband and do other things that they probably want to do more than be under the idol microscope.
(If they do disband, of course, I’ll have to live with it, but….. yeah.)
I don’t follow contract information much, but Chanhyuk played around with saying he’d start his own label I think? Seems like it was in some video I saw when LeeHi was shopping for a new label.
Predictions are fun, so lets go:
GOT7 – gets the 2PM treatment, not all members renew (coughJacksoncough), but enough do that the group technically doesn’t disband. The group goes on indefinite hiatus once enlists start though.
AKMU – I don’t think so. The brother seems like the guy to want more creative control.
Mamamoo – Yes. The members seem to genuinely like each other and have been given plenty of space to pursue solo activities.
Red Velvet – Yes, but the group eventual fades out like f(x) did, without an official disbandment.
Winner – all renew, but military enlistments result in a hiatus.
DreamCatcher – no clue.
Lovelyz – Yes. At least one member leaves, but the group continues with those who renew.
Changing of the guard… with Changmin married and Yunho probably dating, perhaps this would be a good time as any to disband but continue as solo artists? Although it’d hardly be unexpected.
It would be so great if we could get at least 1 more year of Apink. It’s very rare for a group to hit their creative peak AND release some of their best songs more than 7 years into their music career, but that’s exactly what Apink has been doing since 2018’s “I’m So Sick”.
Agreed!
I’m not a card-carrying Panda, but I’ve actually seen them live more than any other group I follow. It would be great to see them again live down the road.
I hope to see them here in Canada.
From your keyboard to Plan M’s PD-nim’s schedule plan!
My prediction: I can see a few early 4th gen acts crashing and burning as even more new rookies arrive on the scene. I definitely think g-idle could be one, and some people will probably laugh at this, but I think ITZY could be another. Seeing how people have responded to 2020 debuts, the girl crush concept seems to be faltering a bit, and that’s also a concept that’s difficult to backtrack on.